Blackjack Odds
Your chances of winning a hand
With basic strategy you win roughly 42-43% of hands, lose about 49%, and push the rest. At first glance that looks like a losing game — you lose more hands than you win. The reason it is still nearly break-even is in the payouts:
- A blackjack pays 3:2, so your wins are worth more than your losses on average.
- You can double down and split to put more money on your strongest hands.
Net it all out and a good game leaves a house edge of about 0.5% — meaning for every $100 wagered you lose about 50 cents on average. That is far better than slots, roulette or most table games.
How often you get a blackjack
A natural blackjack — an Ace with a 10-value card — comes up about 4.83% of the time, or roughly once every 21 hands. There are sixteen 10-value cards in a deck (see card values), which is what makes naturals frequent enough that the 3:2 payout matters a lot to your overall odds.
Dealer bust odds by upcard
The dealer’s upcard tells you how likely they are to bust, and it drives most of basic strategy. Approximate bust probabilities:
| Dealer upcard | Chance dealer busts |
|---|---|
| 2 | ~35% |
| 3 | ~37% |
| 4 | ~40% |
| 5 | ~42% |
| 6 | ~42% |
| 7 | ~26% |
| 8 | ~24% |
| 9 | ~23% |
| 10 / face | ~23% |
| Ace | ~17% |
This is the whole logic behind “stand on stiff hands versus a weak dealer card.” When the dealer shows a 4, 5 or 6, they bust over 40% of the time, so you stand on your 12-16 and let them break. The exact plays are in the strategy guide.
How the rules change your odds
The house edge is not fixed — it moves with the table rules. The biggest factors:
- Payout: 3:2 vs 6:5 swings the edge by about 1.4% — the single biggest factor.
- Soft 17: dealer hitting soft 17 adds about 0.2%.
- Decks: fewer decks help you — single deck shaves roughly 0.5% versus eight decks.
- Doubling & splitting freedom: liberal rules (double on any two, double after split) lower the edge.
Each blackjack variant lists its exact house edge — compare them on the games and rules pages. And if you want to shift the odds in your favor entirely, that is the domain of card counting.